A foundational layer of the I2R (Intelligence to Risk) pyramid features second-order thinking to derive implications. This work is rarely straightforward, and room needs to exist for incorrect prognostication, but caveats aside, second-order thinking is an intelligence analyst’s primary superpower when done well.
For more on JokerDNR, see this new 2-part report from Natto Thoughts:
Disrupt and Demoralize, Deniably:
“Blazing Sun” Anti-Ukrainian Cyber Campaign Exemplifies Russian Military Hacker Group’s Disruption-and-Information-Operations “Playbook”
Disrupt and Demoralize, Deniably, Part 2:
Solntsepek Telegram Account Casts Light on Network of “Hacktivist” Assets Contributing to Russian Information Operations
https://nattothoughts.substack.com/p/disrupt-and-demoralize-deniably-part